(source: Southern Sudan Referendum Commission & Southern Sudan Referendum Bureau)

As expected, a near unanimous choice for independence was cast by the more than 3.8 million voters who voted 98.83% for secession. The Governments of Sudan and Southern Sudan now have until July 9 — when the declaration of independence is scheduled — to negotiate through a series of unresolved issues.

On January 27, I spoke with Bonifacio Taban Kuich, a reporter based in the Southern Sudanese town of Bentiu in the heart of oil the producing region of Unity State. His reporting can be read at the Sudan Tribune as well as on Voice of America. He tells us about the situation in Unity state: the return of over 100,000 internally displaced people (IDPs) from Khartoum and elsewhere; the military buildup of SAF and SPLA troops in the border regions; the reactions to the referendum results of northern merchants living in the south and of southern oil workers; and other issues affecting Unity State.

The following audio report podcast taken from the interview was aired Wednesday, February 2 during weekly the African Issues show, Amandla on Montréal’s CKUT Radio 90.3 FM.

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According to the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission, 3,755,512 voters registered in Southern Sudan, while 116,857 voters registered in Northern Sudan and another 60,219 voters registered in 8 designated out-of-country locations (Australia, Canada, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, the UK and the USA.)  According to reports like this one, the 60% voter participation threshold was reached on the third day of voting, thereby validating the process.

(Children pose beside a damaged water tanker outside of a school in Abyei, April 2009)

SouthSudanInfo.net’s blogger, David Widgington, spoke with Montréal broadcaster, Gwendolyn Schulman, on the CKUT weekly (Wed. 7-8pm) radio show about African issues, Amandla. In the recording below, Gwen and David discuss the following unresolved issues 1) the border demarcation between north and south, including Abyei; 2) Sharing of oil revenue and infrastructure; 3) the management of the Nile floodwaters; 4) citizenship, right to return and security; 5) repayment of the Sudan national debt.

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PODCAST

Below are a few maps from various sources, pilfered from the BBC and elsewhere that display information about Sudan’s physical geography, ethnic group distribution, infant mortality rates, access to water & sanitation facilities, education rates, food consumption percentages, location of oil production infrastructure, language diversity and religions practiced. They are recent additions to my Mapping Sudan page that I share with you here.

Satellite Image Map

(Source: NASA)

Ethnic Group Distribution

(Source: Dr. M. Isady, http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/maps.shtml)

Distribution of Religion

(Source: Dr. M. Isady, http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/maps.shtml)

Languages in Sudan

(Source: Dr. M. Isady, http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/maps.shtml)

Infant Mortality Rates

(Source: Sudan Household Health Survey, 2006)

Percentage Using ‘Improved’ Water & Sanitation

(Source: Sudan Household Health Survey, 2006)

Percentage of Children Who Completed Primary School

(Source: Sudan Household Health Survey, 2006)

Percentage Households with ‘Poor’ Food Consumption

(Source: Sudan Household Health Survey, 2006)

(source: Drilling Info International)

As I follow events in Southern Sudan and add articles to my headlines timeline, people continually ask me basic questions about Sudan. Below I’ve included a few videos that have recently been posted online. They should provide a descent background for those wanting to learn more as Southern Sudanese are set to what is generally believed to choose to create Africa’s newest independent country.

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Sudan: History of a Broken Land

As the people of southern Sudan prepare to vote in a referendum that may see them secede from the North, Al Jazeera maps the turbulent history of a country on the verge of a momentous decision.

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Crossroads Sudan: Sudan’s path to development

Al Jazeera looks at the economic challenges Sudan will be facing after a possible secession of the South.

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Sudan Referendum

On Sunday, Southern Sudan will begin a week-long referendum on whether to break off from Sudan and form a new independent state. The vote is being held under the 2005 peace agreement that ended a nearly four-decade civil war between the North and South that killed some 2.5 million Sudanese. The people of South Sudan are widely expected to approve secession, and the vote has stoked fears of renewed violence in Africa’s largest nation. by Democracy Now

To be eligible to participate in the January 9, 2011 referendum, voters must meet one of three criteria as established by the SSRC: 1) Voter who belongs to one of the indigenous ethnic communities residing in the Southern Sudan (on or before January 1956; 2) Voter who traces his/her ancestry to one of the indigenous ethnic communities in Southern Sudan, but has not permanently resided in the south (without interruption) before or since Jan 1956; and 3) voter who does not belong to one of the indigenous ethnic communities in the Southern Sudan, but he/she or his/her parents or grand-parents are permanently residing in the South (without interruption) since 1st January 1956.

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Below are two video interviews by Ariic Reng, Canadian Outreach Assistant with the International Organization for Migration:

Interview with Dr. Mom Kou Nhial Arou, Assistant Secretary General, Southern Sudan Referendum Commission

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Interview with Gatdeet Wakou, Canadian Representative, Southern Sudan Referendum Commission

(National day of prayer for self-determination, courtesy Pete Muller © 2010)

I always return to Pete Muller’s photography website and his blog when I need to get close to Southern Sudan from my desk in Montréal. He is on the ground and when I look at his photos I can feel the Sudanese sun on my back and smell the dust in the air. He allows me to return from my arm chair and reminds me why I want to go back for real.

It has already been 17 months since my 7-week visit and details are blurring. I now edit the third video from the Video Portrait Series, which brings me back, but give little feedback to the time that has past since the moment of their recording. What is going on in Southern Sudan as it approaches its most important decision. Will it be better prepared that it was for its April 2010 elections?

Waiting in line at a polling station during 2010 national elections, courtesy Pete Muller © 2010)

I began following Pete’s blog during Sudan’s national elections last April, which are considered by most to have been manipulated, and undemocratic. The people he captured through his lens seemed familiar and close. I recognized (and still do) people I met during my visit in nearly each of his photographs. I appointed him as my surrogate presence, someone who would capture the people and their current affairs in a way that I was unable.

I would like to return for the 2011 referendum but the tenuous dates are rapidly approaching and uncertainty prevails. If I go, I will have to meet with Pete in Juba to get myself back on the ground. If I don’t go, I will continue to follow the stories he tells of the Southern Sudanese to keep me up-to-date with the moments that are marking their history with so much potential. Keep up the great work!

The material presented in the report comes from workshops in Malakal, Juba, Bor and Khartoum in May and June 2009, just after my own visit to Southern Sudan, although I went to Juba, Wau, Aweil and Abyei. Information comes from input during the workshops by local and international NGOs, faith group, politicians, government officials, civil society organizations and “others”.

The report defines four scenarios based on two uncertainties: 1) whether the country will be at war or at peace, and 2) whether the country will remain united or whether the south will secede from the north (see diagram below).

FOUR (five) SCENARIOS:

In the document’s executive summary, five main findings arose from the exercise of creating these four scenarios:

1. “It may not be wise to direct all long-term attention to developmental rather than humanitarian assistance.” because, the report stipulates, even in the best scenario (self-professed as the ‘CPA Hurray!’ scenario) “small-scale conflicts are still likely.”;
2. The ‘CPA Hurray!’ scenario is worth pursuing as a strategy because it “promises a less violent future.” But, according to this report (and this recent report), it “appears less plausible”.
3. The materialization of “free and fair elections is essential, not only to guarantee peace, but as the only peaceful way to bring about unity,” which according to September 2007 focus group survey, A Place to Call Their Own, as well as the report’s own southern focus groups, most Southerners do not want.
4. “Continuous outside mediation and pressure is needed to get all parties to implement the CPA and to make unity attractive.” It continues to explain that the “time horizon” needs more flexibility and needs to be extended beyond 2012. The need to talk about a “post-2012 period” is paramount particularly “about what unity might look like” to make the pre-2012 period “more manageable.”
5. “The critical difference between a successful and unsuccessful outcome will be to a large extent determined by whether the South has a stable, cooperative and confident leadership.”

The interesting future histories in Sudan between 2009-2012, created by the report’s author, lead to each of the four post-2012 Sudan scenarios are followed by the suggestions and policy options for the international community. They are well researched and seem to portray the current situation in Southern Sudan. Future histories are then formulated to create each of the four scenarios.

Based on the five main findings outlined above, the report seems to favour scenario #3, which represents the point of view of Northern focus groups, who view ‘CPA Hurray!’ as “a romantic but possible scenario.” The members of Southern focus groups expressed a belief that “a renewed war between the North and the South next to unavoidable” so scenarios one and two were most likely to them.

Possibly the most interesting element in the report is the identification by the Northern focus groups of a fifth “Stagnation’ scenario within the ‘no war’ and ‘united’ quadrant of the diagram. Based on a third uncertainty, which is given little attention these days, is the possibility that neither the 2010 elections nor the 2011 referendum will take place. They believe that “because elites in power in Khartoum and Juba have little to gain from [a election and a referendum], and prefer the present situation to continue.” This status quo situation would allow Sudanese and international actors to “muddle through, continuing to ‘band aid’ the Sudanese system together.”

Since the beginning of October, I’ve come to Le Cheval Blanc on Wednesday evenings to initiate a ritual meeting place among friends to establish tradition where non existed before. A recurrent gathering—without notice—to linger over a pint of locally brewed beer and discuss our respective projects and catch up on each other’s lives. Come after 17h00 and, barring lateness, I will be there. In my absence,  carry on without me.

This ‘tradition’ is important now because I’m feeling somewhat shaky these days, having left much of my former professional self behind to begin anew. Bye bye book publishing. It was nice knowing you. We shared ten great years. But without the meetings, editorial schedules and launch deadlines, I find myself with blank agenda pages and insufficient diversity on any given day. Since I closed the bed & breakfast 77 days ago, the early breakfasts, dirty laundry and evening check-ins cease to guide my days with their punctual familiarity. And now I’ve moved to another part of town. Terra incognita. A potentially dreadful place if one is captivated by fear of the unknown. A place of potential crisis if left untethered. A panic attack circling like a pack of hyenas. A pocketed paper bag in the onslaught of hyperventilation. Luckily for me I thrive on change but it sometimes takes a bit of adjustment.

I don’t fear the horizon ahead of me, of falling of the edge of the world. I enjoy facing the open ocean imagining the current taking me toward the rest of the world. These are moments when everything is possible. It’s the potential of it all that makes new projects worth pursuing. And it’s precisely this potential that leads me to Africa or more precisely to Sudan, a place devastated by post-colonial war. I read in this morning’s newspaper that just yesterday, at the National Forum on Darfur, held in Khartoum, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir called for a ceasefire in Darfur and the immediate disarmament of the Janjaweed militias 1, 2, 3, 4. Maybe the western region of Sudan will grasp the tenuous peace that continues in South Sudan, where I’m headed at the end of January or early February.

South Sudan may be one of the more remote and underdeveloped regions of the world but it is on the cusp of something new. Something great. Great because it has been at peace with the central Sudanese government since 2005, after two debilitating civil wars (1956-1972 & 1983-2005). Great because four million refugees are returning to their traditional homeland. Great because schools are being built to educate the girls and boys who have now experienced peace for the first time. Great because elections are coming in 2009 and the population is learning about democratic processes by state-sponsored, privately owned, and community media. Great because in 2011, the South can hold a referendum( as mandadted in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the northern Government of Sudan (GoS) and the southern-based Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement) that can give the South independence from the rest of Sudan. I’m not adverse to separation but I’d like to ask the South Sudanese what they want in their context.

Everyone knows that holding elections or referenda after decades of war can be volatile in the best of times, but its potential for holding onto the peace is palpable. I want to be there, as it unfolds, to witness, capture and understand this potential.

South Sudan, as a political entity in and of itself, is without tradition. Its existence is new, since the 2005 peace agreement. I am not referring to the traditions of the various community and ethnic groups, like the Dinka, Nuer, and 68 others listed by The Gurtong Peace Trust. Their respective traditions go back farther than anyone can accurately refer to. Theirs are oral histories that have been passed on through generations since the beginning of time.

The tradition I’m referring to is in the tradition of peace and co-habitation within a geographic area and political setting that did not really exist before the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The Agreement was signed on January 9, 2005, beginning a 6-year interim period and establishing South Sudan as an autonomous region within Sudan.

Now midway in this interim period, Sudan is preparing for elections. The Fifth National Population Census is underway to reveal the demographics of the country but I’m particularly interested in the South. How many people actually make up its population? A difficult questions considering about half of the four million refugees have yet to return to their ancestral lands. Some are internally displaced within Sudan, others are refugees in neighbouring countries,  while still others have taken refuge in Canada, the United States, and other western countries. How can so many people who are still on the move be accurately counted? And how accurate must the count be to consider election results fair and democratic? There hasn’t been an accurate census taken in Sudan since 1983 before the beginning of its 2nd civil war.

To give you an idea of the challenges, Southern Sudan’s land mass is huge with an area of about 640,000 square kilometres (about the size of France), with a population estimated somewhere between 7.5 and 9.7 million. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFDA), the population is expected to increase by as much as three million in the next six years due to the natural increase in population and the return of refugees and internally displaced people. Where will they all live? What infrastructure is needed to accommodate their arrival? What will they do when they get to where they are going? Humanitarian and development aid is needed in South Sudan to provide for those who are already there, so how much more is needed to accommodate the returnees? These are questions that are rarely discussed in Western media so how else is one supposed to genuinely understand without interviewing the few that follow the case closely and talking to the people living through the tumultuous changes? Although the peace holds a huge potential to rejuvenate a wounded land and its scattered people, its erratic interpretation by those who’ve only known war—and the geopolitical wrangling by those interested in the South’s resources—can foment crisis conditions reminiscent of the recent past.

If I can share challenges and successes of the peace process in written, audio and video reports and documentary films, which few others seem to be doing, then maybe it will be a little easier (if ever so slightly) for peace to settle in and make itself comfortable. That’s another reason I want to go.

Kapuscinski writes in the aforementioned book that experience has taught him that “situations of crisis appear more dire and dangerous from a distance than they do up close.” I tend to agree. He continues in the chapter about Zanzibar, that mythical island off the coast of Kenya, about when he chartered a plane from Dar es Salaam to Zanzibar to report the previous day’s coup d’état there.  He adds, “Our imaginations hungrily and greedily absorb every tiny bit of sensational news, the slightest portent of peril, the faintest whiff of gunpowder, and instantly inflate these signs to monstrous, paralyzing proportions.” Corporate media thrive on this sensationalism but I want to get past it; closer to the truth. However, Kapuscinski doesn’t denigrate the havoc that can reign during such times. He wrote “about those moments when calm, deep waters begin to churn and bubble into general chaos [...] it is easy to perish by accident, because someone didn’t hear something fully or didn’t notice something in time. On such days, the accident is king; it becomes history’s true determinant and master.”

I’ve never been prone to accidents and I plan on keeping it that way.

I’ve been asked over and over again, “Why Sudan?!” My immediate response — and the one which flows generously from my lips is, “Why not!” But I actually have dozens of reasons for chosing Sudan: First off, It’s the country with the largest geographic area in Africa and it’s in crisis! A 21-year civil war ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) on January 9, 2005 between the government of The Sudan, based in country’s capital Khartoum and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) from the south of the country. The relative peace has persisted in the south of the country but another civil war in the western Sudananese region of Darfur rages on. The murderous attacks in Darfur started in 2003 between the Sudanese Army with its Janjaweed allies, and rebel forces: the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).

Since most attention is given to the war in Darfur (which it deserves), I though it would be interesting to learn about a part of Sudan that is in a post-conflict transition toward peace and democracy. Besides, I have a friend who is contracted by UNOPS and is based in South Sudan’s capital, Juba. And he said I can stay with him if I come. Although he may not be there when I go, he said he will help with contacts. How could I refuse an offer like that? Sudan is one of the least developed regions of the world, ranked 147th out of 177 countries in a 2007 UNDP Human Development Report. South Sudan (and the western region of Darfur) are the neglected areas of Sudan and may actually rank lower than the whole of Sudan.

Another reason to go to South Sudan, is to dive into my new identity without hesitation. Tear myself away from the complacency of North American comfort and go somewhere I know little about because mainstream media offers me little about this part of Sudan. Most of the killing is taking place elsewhere in the country, in Darfur. The same massacres that tormented the South are being repeated in Darfur. One civil war ends and another begins but the patterns remain the same. Foreign media follow the killings, express their outrage while forgetting Sudan’s past, its previous war. They ignore the future of the places they have left behind in search of front page stories, dreadful images and a higher circulation rates. Kaching.

I am interested in South Sudan’s future and I want to understand how its present will lead it there. I want to see for myself what the end of Africa’s longest civil war looks like. How quickly does the scent of peace waft across 589,745 km² to reach the 8.5 million people? What is the stench of peace to the millions of refugees now returning to the South, to villages whose ashes have long since melted into the desert? What does democracy taste like to the southerners who have an opportunity to vote for the first time in elections in 2009; and again in 2011 in a referendum for independence?

In Québec, we’ve had two referendums to decide whether or not to seperate from the rest of Canada. Both times (in 1980 and 1995) the electorate decided (in 1995 with a slight margin: 50.58% “No” to 49.42% “Yes”) that seperation was for another time. What will Sudan’s southerners decide? How will they be informed about the options and what are the logistic challenges for preparing for a referendum? Will the North government allow the South to take its land and resources behind international lines? These are questions I want to understand and questions I will investigate while on the ground in South Sudan. I arrive in Juba mid-January 2009.

For now, I have more reading to do. More contacts to make. An itinerary to determine. Interviews to set up and visas to obtain.