(source: Map No. 3707 Rev. 10, UNITED NATIONS, Department of Peacekeeping Operations Cartographic Section, April 2007)

I decided to look through my reference library to select articles and reports that address issues relating to the border that will divide the Republic of Sudan from the new Republic of South Sudan. If you know of any others to add to the collection, please contact me.

Selected Reports:

- (July 1, 2011) Beyond The Pledge: International Engagement After Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement by Aegis Trust, African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies, African Peace Forum, African Research and Resource Forum, Agency for Independent Media, Al-Khatim Adlan Center for Enlightenment and Human Development, Arab Coalition for Darfur, Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies, Community Empowerment and Progress Organisation (Sudan), Darfur Consortium, Darfur Relief and Documentation Centre, ENOUGH, Genocide Intervention Network / Save Darfur Coalition, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, Global Witness, ICCO, International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH ), International Refugee Rights Initiative, Kenya Human Rights Commission, Sudan Democracy First Group, Sudanese Network for Democratic Elections, Waging Peace (download pdf 904KB).

- (June 26, 2011) Sudan Report by Sicuro Information (download pdf 6364KB).

- (June 15, 2011) Sudan: The Crisis in Darfur and the Status of the North-South Peace Agreement by Ted Dagne US Congressional Research Service  (download pdf 888KB).

- (June 2011) Peace in Both Sudans by Enough Project, Humanity United, Investors Against Genocide, et al (download pdf 196KB).

- (May 2011) Abyei: From a Shared Past to a Contested Future, Policy and Practice Brief by the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (download pdf 2.6MB).

- (April , 2011) Abyei, Sudan’s West Bank by Enough Project, (download pdf 408KB).

- (Feb 22, 2011) South Sudan’s Referendum: Geopolitical and Geostrategic Implications an ISS Seminar Report (download pdf 120KB).

- (2010) When Boundaries Become Borders: the impact of boundary making in Southern Sudan’s frontier zones by Douglas H. Johnson The Rift Valley Institute  (download pdf 1.8MB).

- (2010) The Kafia Kingi Enclave: people, politics and history in the North – South boundary zone of western Sudan by Edward Thomas, The Rift Valley Institute  (download pdf 3.6MB).

- (Nov 23, 2010) Negotiating Sudan’s North-South Future, Africa Briefing No.76 by International Crisis Group (download pdf 1.8MB).

- (October 2010) Race Against Time: The countdown to the referenda in Southern Sudan and Abyei by Aly Verjee at the Rift Valley Institute (download pdf 1.3MB).

- (September 2010) More Than a Line: Sudan’s North – South Border by Concordia International (download pdf 2.5MB).

- (July 2, 2010) Sudan: Defining the North-South Border, Africa Briefing #75 by International Crisis Group (download pdf 1.3MB).

- (Mar 16, 2010) Preparing for Two Sudans by Maggie Fick at the Enough Project (download pdf 400KB).

- (Aug 2009) Scenarios for Sudan: avoiding political violence through 2011, Special Report 228 by United States Institute of Peace (download pdf 572KB).

According to the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission, 3,755,512 voters registered in Southern Sudan, while 116,857 voters registered in Northern Sudan and another 60,219 voters registered in 8 designated out-of-country locations (Australia, Canada, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, the UK and the USA.)  According to reports like this one, the 60% voter participation threshold was reached on the third day of voting, thereby validating the process.

(Children pose beside a damaged water tanker outside of a school in Abyei, April 2009)

SouthSudanInfo.net’s blogger, David Widgington, spoke with Montréal broadcaster, Gwendolyn Schulman, on the CKUT weekly (Wed. 7-8pm) radio show about African issues, Amandla. In the recording below, Gwen and David discuss the following unresolved issues 1) the border demarcation between north and south, including Abyei; 2) Sharing of oil revenue and infrastructure; 3) the management of the Nile floodwaters; 4) citizenship, right to return and security; 5) repayment of the Sudan national debt.

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PODCAST

The material presented in the report comes from workshops in Malakal, Juba, Bor and Khartoum in May and June 2009, just after my own visit to Southern Sudan, although I went to Juba, Wau, Aweil and Abyei. Information comes from input during the workshops by local and international NGOs, faith group, politicians, government officials, civil society organizations and “others”.

The report defines four scenarios based on two uncertainties: 1) whether the country will be at war or at peace, and 2) whether the country will remain united or whether the south will secede from the north (see diagram below).

FOUR (five) SCENARIOS:

In the document’s executive summary, five main findings arose from the exercise of creating these four scenarios:

1. “It may not be wise to direct all long-term attention to developmental rather than humanitarian assistance.” because, the report stipulates, even in the best scenario (self-professed as the ‘CPA Hurray!’ scenario) “small-scale conflicts are still likely.”;
2. The ‘CPA Hurray!’ scenario is worth pursuing as a strategy because it “promises a less violent future.” But, according to this report (and this recent report), it “appears less plausible”.
3. The materialization of “free and fair elections is essential, not only to guarantee peace, but as the only peaceful way to bring about unity,” which according to September 2007 focus group survey, A Place to Call Their Own, as well as the report’s own southern focus groups, most Southerners do not want.
4. “Continuous outside mediation and pressure is needed to get all parties to implement the CPA and to make unity attractive.” It continues to explain that the “time horizon” needs more flexibility and needs to be extended beyond 2012. The need to talk about a “post-2012 period” is paramount particularly “about what unity might look like” to make the pre-2012 period “more manageable.”
5. “The critical difference between a successful and unsuccessful outcome will be to a large extent determined by whether the South has a stable, cooperative and confident leadership.”

The interesting future histories in Sudan between 2009-2012, created by the report’s author, lead to each of the four post-2012 Sudan scenarios are followed by the suggestions and policy options for the international community. They are well researched and seem to portray the current situation in Southern Sudan. Future histories are then formulated to create each of the four scenarios.

Based on the five main findings outlined above, the report seems to favour scenario #3, which represents the point of view of Northern focus groups, who view ‘CPA Hurray!’ as “a romantic but possible scenario.” The members of Southern focus groups expressed a belief that “a renewed war between the North and the South next to unavoidable” so scenarios one and two were most likely to them.

Possibly the most interesting element in the report is the identification by the Northern focus groups of a fifth “Stagnation’ scenario within the ‘no war’ and ‘united’ quadrant of the diagram. Based on a third uncertainty, which is given little attention these days, is the possibility that neither the 2010 elections nor the 2011 referendum will take place. They believe that “because elites in power in Khartoum and Juba have little to gain from [a election and a referendum], and prefer the present situation to continue.” This status quo situation would allow Sudanese and international actors to “muddle through, continuing to ‘band aid’ the Sudanese system together.”